Comments on: Even More on LDS Church Statistics

By: Green Oasis » Head Full of Fluff

Green Oasis » Head Full of Fluff — Tue, 12 Jun 2007 21:45:33 +0000

[...] are some interesting trends in the statistics which the church publishes: raw growth, raw number of converts, converts per missionary, and percentage growth are all in [...]

By: Paula

Paula — Sat, 14 Apr 2007 21:39:37 +0000

I just saw our ward list two nights ago, color-coded for active, less-active and part-member families. Of course there’s one entry per household, and some of the active households are pretty large, but I would be surprised if the active households even make up 15% of the entries on the list. If you figured out the numbers in our ward from that, by person, rather than household, you’d probably get up to 30% activity rate, just because the active households are mostly larger than the less-active households. I’m in southern California.

By: JonW

JonW — Sat, 14 Apr 2007 20:51:36 +0000

Oops I meant to say Ezra T. Benson

By: JonW

JonW — Sat, 14 Apr 2007 20:50:32 +0000

1988 and 1989 growth were the direct result of “flood the earth with Book of Mormon”, growth was 587K and 452K, but members stopped listening to Howard W. Hunter and growth dropped back to 300K, where it has mostly stayed the last 16 years. US LDS Growth rate is about 1.8% annually or almost twice the US census growth rate. There are still 95 more US stakes (1,424) then Foreign stakes (1,329) but Brazil just joined Mexico in the over 200 stakes club.

By: Mayan Elephant

Mayan Elephant — Thu, 05 Apr 2007 16:56:54 +0000

John Hamer,

i suspect you are familiar with this study.

http://www.gc.cuny.edu/faculty/research_briefs/aris/key_findings.htm

it is not from the COB, which is what I am suspect is what you are seeking.

and here is some of the international numbers, again, unofficial. i noticed that the cumorah guy is preparing an lds almanac with maps for 2007. do you know anything about that?

http://www.cumorah.com/

By: John Hamer

John Hamer — Thu, 05 Apr 2007 16:46:18 +0000

For all the information about LDS membership online, I haven’t been able to track down the US-only data. The only recent numbers I’ve found indicate that the LDS church claimed “4,520,000″ US members in 1995, “5,208,000″ US members in 2000, and “5,503,000″ in 2005. If that’s true, that would be a remarkably rapid decrease in claimed US growth rate, from 15% over the first 5 year period to under 6% over the second 5 year period.

Given that the overwhelming bulk of tithing dollars come from the US, this recent collapse in the claimed American growth rate is much more significant than any growth claimed in the developing world.

By: Clay

Clay — Thu, 05 Apr 2007 15:40:35 +0000

There was a general authority who gave a presentation to my old stake president, who passed it on to us (in a ward council meeting) that activity rates (I believe measured by sacrament meeting attendance) was directly proportional to the number of callings in a branch/ward. Perhaps coincidence, but the GA stated it is very consistent across the church no matter which country or region that for every member of a branch/ward who has a calling, church attendance is approximately twice the amount. He gave examples of a branch with the minimum 30 callings, perhaps 100 members total, and 60 attend. Another branch wih 200 members, 30 callings, and still only 60 attend. Then a ward of 500 members and 50 callings and only 100 members attend.

For what its worth.

By: Hueffenhardt

Hueffenhardt — Thu, 05 Apr 2007 15:30:51 +0000

I apologize if I am the only one confused, but RT, where are you getting activity rates and where are Edward Kimball’s numbers?

By: RoastedTomatoes

RoastedTomatoes — Thu, 05 Apr 2007 12:03:09 +0000

John Dehlin’s range is roughly in keeping with the numbers that journalists occasionally get on background from the COB — which, let us remember, does in fact have the actual activity numbers. So, in the last decade plus (given Edward Kimball’s numbers), we’ve lost about 10-15% in terms of activity rates. That cancels out a few years worth of conversions, but not the whole decade. Combined with global population growth, the falling activity rates push the change in the proportion of people who are active Mormons back toward — but probably not all the way to — zero.

By: Mayan Elephant

Mayan Elephant — Thu, 05 Apr 2007 02:25:37 +0000

Oh Hueff, you didnt hear? Thats when Domo and I were missionaries.

By: Hueffenhardt

Hueffenhardt — Thu, 05 Apr 2007 01:27:01 +0000

What is going on in 1988 and 1989?

By: John Dehlin

John Dehlin — Wed, 04 Apr 2007 22:59:49 +0000

Yeah. Utah (depending on the area) can fluctuate between 35% (SLC) and 90% (student wards, etc.).

It’s LATAM, Asia and Europe that bring it all down (often in the teens).

By: Equality

Equality — Wed, 04 Apr 2007 22:51:49 +0000

I’d go with John’s number ut of course it is just a WAG. You must remember that a large portion of the church membership is still found in Utah, which I think had activity rates well above 50%, doesn’t it? When I lived in PG, Utah, our ward had an activity rate that easily topped 75%. I think that’s not terribly unusual for that part of the state. Of course, Latin America and East Asia are another story altogether.

By: Mayan Elephant

Mayan Elephant — Wed, 04 Apr 2007 22:36:11 +0000

Its been a loooooooooooong time since I lived in the lovely Deseret. In 20 years outside of Deseret, I have never seen anything even close to 30%. I base that on my observation of active heads of households on the ward membership roles. With Utah and Idaho factored in the numbers, perhaps John’s estimate is accurate.

As Equality pointed out in another post, the number of Stakes/Districts created vs. the increase in members would be consistent with John’s estimates.

By: John Dehlin

John Dehlin — Wed, 04 Apr 2007 22:26:04 +0000

It’s between 35% and 40%, I believe.

By: Tom Grover

Tom Grover — Wed, 04 Apr 2007 22:11:03 +0000

I would be shocked if the activity rate was 53%.

I served my mission in Northern California, in the shadow of Deseret and the activity rate was between 20-30% in each ward. It has always made me wonder what activity rates are like back east or internationally where the culutral pull of the church is less strong.

I would optimistically guess that the activity rate in the Church is about 20%. Maybe 20%.

By: Chris Rusch

Chris Rusch — Wed, 04 Apr 2007 20:35:04 +0000

A footnote in Edward L. Kimball’s lengthen your stride indicated that as of 1995, activity rates among all those, even those who no longer consider themselves Mormons but remain on the roles, was around 53%. I would guess that it has not changed much since then. But until the Church releases a specific number, we will never know for sure.

By: CT

CT — Wed, 04 Apr 2007 18:45:19 +0000

It is informative to see how many people are joining the Church each year, but I agree with John- without the activity rates, the grand totals don’t have a big impact on me.

By: John Hamer

John Hamer — Wed, 04 Apr 2007 17:58:02 +0000

Has anyone seen charts like these for # of members and stakes inside the US?

By: Mayan Elephant

Mayan Elephant — Wed, 04 Apr 2007 16:28:44 +0000

These charts sure are pretty.